You're talking to the biggest Heels fan on
TTP. Not a lofty title, but something I pride myself on. Lord I'm sad.
Anyways, as far as the Heels go, there are a few givens with this team. 1) They'll finish top 4 in the ACC which means 2) They'll make March Madness.
But I could see this as the year that the Heels don't win 20. Also could be the year they struggle in the Duke series and get wiped. I really want to see how 7'6 center Neil Fingleton does this season after pining it all of last year. I think, if nothing else, he can take some of the pressure away from Capel and Lang, who will almost certainly be double-teamed in the post all season long.
The X-factor with the Heels? Coaching. Doherty showed last season that he is a great motivator and can handle the pressure of guiding one of the most storied hoops programs in America. What I don't think he'll be able to do is replace the stuff Peppers brought to the team. I think Pep was severly underrated with this team - NBA scouts said that if he stuck with basketball, he'd have been a lottery pick by the time he came out. He was big, strong, and athletic as hell. Amazing on the glass.
As for teams to watch, keep an eye on Gonzaga and their star PG, Dan Dickau. He was rated 4th in the country last season behind Williams (Jason and Frank), and Troy Bell of Boston College. While the Zags are no longer a sleeper come tourney time, this could be the season they stay ranked (top 20 even) for an entire season. You can only ignore the Bulldogs for so long.
Cheers,
-Sensei.