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Div 1 [VMSL Div 1] Predictions, Results & Banter 2018/2019

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Canucks4Ever

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GN have flipped back on top of the standings as week after week goes by with no clear idea of where all these teams will end up come February. Not sure things are likely to get any clearer any time soon. Perhaps a favourites or favourites will emerge over the coming weeks, but, the way things are going, I would not expect have an idea of who will be fighting it out for top spot any time before mid-November.

Completely Baseless Predictions - Week 7

Binger's Army v Romania
The Army get the free hit this week against woeful Romania. It is now up to 20 goals against and no points through five games after a 3-1 loss to Chinter last week. Even Binger's with the lowest goals for tally in the league (yes, that's right, even less than Romania themselves) must be salivating at this one to pad the stats. I doubt it will be off the charts numbers, but surely this will be straight forward for the Army. I certainly cannot see a midweek kickoff doing anything to improve Romania's outlook. Not much to analyze here.

Columbus v Westside
In days gone by this was a heavyweight Premier battle. Alas, those tilts are certainly in the past now as these two clubs look to shake off what could be best described as "groggy" starts to their respective seasons. Interestingly, presuming Binger's win on Wednesday, recently relegated Westside will find them in tenth place going into this one on Friday night, hovering just above the drop zone. Truthfully though, they are still closer to the top of the league than the bottom and I am sure are still considering a promotion push and not even considering a relegation battle. The Westsiders have the joint best defensive record in the league, so that will serve them well as it is most often the teams that cannot keep the ball out of their net who end up going down, as this group was made acutely aware of last season. Their problem is, of course, that they are struggling to score at the moment. They are clearly giving themselves a chance to win every game with their tidy defending though, so it is likely just a matter of the goals finally starting to come, which they will hope is sooner rather than later. Columbus are unbeaten since the opening week of the season which, despite only resulting in nine points over five weeks, has to be considered top form the way Division 1 is trending so far this year. To be honest, their overall form is not dissimilar to their opponents this week, one need only swap a win for a draw. Both teams hanging around in games, neither overpowering anyone. I would say this has draw written all over it.

Club Inter EDC v Burnaby Selects White Eagles
White Eagles appear to be on a march up the table at the minute. Most importantly, unlike the rest of the league they seem to be avoiding drawing games and this has allowed them to rise to a tie for second place with Coquitlam. As if the case in point, The former Serbians have got there with a record of four wins and two losses, while Metro Ford have three wins and three draws while technically being undefeated. If you are playing to win games you can afford the occasional loss, because the points make up for it. If you are just out trying not to lose, you will tend to drop the points anyway as you go through ties. Now that is of course not infallible logic by any means, but I do think that kind of outlook will serve White Eagles well, especially with other teams in the division seemingly leaning towards the other mantra. Burnaby's problem continues to be the fact that they give up several goals, which is fine when they are scoring their way out of trouble themselves, but it caught up with them last season and they seem to have avoiding addressing the problem a month and a half into this year. EDC got a charity win over Romania last week to go with the surprise win they pulled off against GN the week before. A two game winning streak makes them the form side in this division coming into this week, so look out for a wave of Italian influenced South American confidence. Still, if their overall form has shown anything through six weeks it is that they will be looking at a lower mid-table finish this season. If White Eagles are serious about being a top team this season, they will make sure they win this game.

NorVan Storm v Coquitlam Metro Ford Lupi
Despite being held to a draw last week by Rino's, Metro Ford have clearly proven that they are among the cream of a wholly average crop this season in Division 1. Sitting undefeated, in second place, on 12 points is a great return for the newly promoted side and the stats are slowly starting to bear this out as well. Erik Morden and Eric Dove now sit in second and tied for third in league scoring with four and three goals respectively. It was another nearly moment for NorVan last week as they chalked up their third loss by a single goal already this year. It would seem that in the big moments of matches they just cannot come out on the right side at the minute. As I repeat nearly every week, Lupi do not lose very often and that is hardly the sort of resume winless NorVan need to be staring down this week. Expect another close game, but based on the North Shore boys repeated inability to deliver when they game is on the line, I'll have to tip the Tri-Cities boys in this one.

Rino's Fury v Vancouver Greencaps
The 'Caps were put in their place by a fairly average (at least to this point in the season) Columbus side last week by a 3-1 margin. After a bright start perhaps that "new division smell" is starting to wear off for the newly promoted side as they confront the reality of playing teams that are experienced at this level, week in and week out. Greencaps will certainly give any side a run for their money any day of the week, but after a grueling promotion campaign in Division 2 and a bright start that has already seen them put decent daylight between themselves and the drop zone, they could be forgiven for taking their foot off the gas and exhaling just slightly. Rino's are slogging along just fine, picking up points as they go, the latest being off of top of the league Coquitlam. These two teams match up fairly well, with their blue collar work ethic interspersed with one or two game breakers. This ones probably a toss up, but I'll take Rino's based on that potential Greencaps relaxation effect.

Burnaby Metro Athletic v GN Sporting
This one is the MOTW with GN Sporting back on top of the table, occupying a perch that Metro would very much like to have back. After losign to EDC and relinquishing top spot, GN responded with a win over Binger's. The 1-0 result was hardly convincing of championship credentials, but it was a character bounce back and a situation where they found a way to win again a plucky, veteran side. Meanwhile, Metro were held to an uninspiring 0-0 against Westside and have not won for three weeks. For a team that started the campaign 3-0-0 and certainly has promotion ambitions, this form is unsettling. That being said, because the rest of the league has failed to take advantage of Burnaby's poor form to distance them from the pack, they can gain back much of what they have lost with a win this week. Surely that is plenty motivating inside the Metro dressing room. For all their impressive results, GN are still tough to buy as real contenders because of their history of collapse. The loss to an average at best Inter side, who were winless at the time, does little to allay those concerns. A win this week, however, would certainly cause the league to sit up and take notice. It would also be the first real hammer blow to Metro's title aspirations as they would sit five points back of GN and likely four back of at least one other team. The door is open here to finally start stratifying the table in Division 1 and for the leaders to begin to breakaway. Based on GN's history though, as well as the league as a whole so far this season, I'll believe it when I see it. I think a very motivated Burnaby side ensures that we have a different name on top of the table next week once more.
 

robino

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It is not good that DIV 1 has 4 teams that cannot go up even if they finish top 2 in this Division. Rino, Inter, Norvan, Coquitlam...Did I miss anyone else? These 4 spots should be open for teams that could move up if they finish first or second. Simple as that. Otherwise DIV 1 is basically becoming a CAT league that once was.
 
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It is not good that DIV 1 has 4 teams that cannot go up even if they finish top 2 in this Division. Rino, Inter, Norvan, Coquitlam...Did I miss anyone else? These 4 spots should be open for teams that could move up if they finish first or second. Simple as that. Otherwise DIV 1 is basically becoming a CAT league that once was.

What if they were to remove themselves from their parent clubs at the end of the season and be a "standalone" club? Does anyone know if the league would allow them to move up to prem?
 
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I think they should be allowed to do that. It's stupid otherwise.

One issue with that is they can use players from their parent club's teams in other divisions which can help them in getting promotion. And then if they were to detach themselves from the parent club after getting promoted- that would seem unfair to other teams in that division (although they probably won't survive anyway without parent club's help the next season). It would make more sense to detach from the parent club prior to the start of the season if they believe they are promotion contenders.
 

Canucks4Ever

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From discussion with league exec sources, the league is also not thrilled about the current state of Division 1, with one third of the league not being able to be promoted.

That being said it is a tricky issue. Despite the somewhat well accepted phenomena of teams "selling spots," that is illegal per the VMSL constitution/rules. Teams usually circumvent this rule by couching the "sale" of a spot as a "merger" and then ties are cut through disassociation in subsequent seasons. However, technically speaking, all the spots are the property of the Club (ie Metro Ford) and if they are folding a team or for whatever other reason not using the spot, they are to be returned to the league to fill as vacancies.

Therefore, if say Metro Ford were to be promoted, they could not simply "break away" from the Metro Ford club and become "Coquitlam FC," or some other entity, while keeping their spot in the VMSL. It is Metro Ford's spot, not the "team's spot" and thus cannot be moved up into Premier because the VMSL expressly forbids having more that one team from the same club in Premier and CMF already has a spot in that division.

Now the next question would be one of a disassociation (think Rino's and Westside circa 2010). In that case Westside Rangers were in Premier and Westside Rino's (who had previous represented the club in Premier) were trapped in Division 1. Rino's notified the league that they were separating from Westside, with I believe Westside's blessing, and were allowed to keep all the existing "Rino's" spots in the VMSL. The key difference being that they declared independence PRIOR to the start of the season when they were set to compete in Division 1; they had not earned promotion and then decided to find a way around the one team per club rule.

IMO, if Lupi (or any other of the four club tied teams) played the entire season under the CMF banner, earned promotion and THEN decided that they were going to become "independent" and play in Prem next season as "Lupi Utd." or whatever, that would not be fair. They came into this season knowing that as part of CMF club that they could not be promoted and they accepted that, presumably because whatever benefit they receive from being part of the club (perhaps player sharing, access to equipment/fields, coaching resources, etc.) outweighed being able to compete for promotion. Retroactively deciding that they want to compete for promotion and that the rules around club spots in Premier and disassociation etc. should be massaged to allow them to do this is simply disingenuous to all the other teams in the division who are assuming that they are playing under the rules as stated. If Lupi, NorVan, Fury, Inter, etc. want to compete for promotion, they can disassociate in advance of next season and try their luck going solo.

This is of course all moot if two of the other eight teams that are eligible for promotion finish first and second.
 

SmartCoach

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2015/ 2016 season we had 3 spots in div 1
One team was there one team got promoted from div 2
One team got demoted from prem
The teams all had different coaches no players
Transferred from one team to the others
They fought like a Derby or cup game every time they play each other to prove who was the best
Both teams won games over the promoted team
At the end of the season one team promoted to premier one team stayed and we gave one team back to the league so we would get a div 2 spot
The new system works our teams are happy in there divisions
I would say this year there is no a single team in div 1 that would do well in premier
Look at Guildford good coach no premier players
NorVan are the exception from last season as they have been there before and Added some excellent players to there roster
 

binderdonedat

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So let say if the teams that cant move up finish 1st-4th, does the promotion spots automatically go to 5th and 6th place teams in standings?

From discussion with league exec sources, the league is also not thrilled about the current state of Division 1, with one third of the league not being able to be promoted.

That being said it is a tricky issue. Despite the somewhat well accepted phenomena of teams "selling spots," that is illegal per the VMSL constitution/rules. Teams usually circumvent this rule by couching the "sale" of a spot as a "merger" and then ties are cut through disassociation in subsequent seasons. However, technically speaking, all the spots are the property of the Club (ie Metro Ford) and if they are folding a team or for whatever other reason not using the spot, they are to be returned to the league to fill as vacancies.

Therefore, if say Metro Ford were to be promoted, they could not simply "break away" from the Metro Ford club and become "Coquitlam FC," or some other entity, while keeping their spot in the VMSL. It is Metro Ford's spot, not the "team's spot" and thus cannot be moved up into Premier because the VMSL expressly forbids having more that one team from the same club in Premier and CMF already has a spot in that division.

Now the next question would be one of a disassociation (think Rino's and Westside circa 2010). In that case Westside Rangers were in Premier and Westside Rino's (who had previous represented the club in Premier) were trapped in Division 1. Rino's notified the league that they were separating from Westside, with I believe Westside's blessing, and were allowed to keep all the existing "Rino's" spots in the VMSL. The key difference being that they declared independence PRIOR to the start of the season when they were set to compete in Division 1; they had not earned promotion and then decided to find a way around the one team per club rule.

IMO, if Lupi (or any other of the four club tied teams) played the entire season under the CMF banner, earned promotion and THEN decided that they were going to become "independent" and play in Prem next season as "Lupi Utd." or whatever, that would not be fair. They came into this season knowing that as part of CMF club that they could not be promoted and they accepted that, presumably because whatever benefit they receive from being part of the club (perhaps player sharing, access to equipment/fields, coaching resources, etc.) outweighed being able to compete for promotion. Retroactively deciding that they want to compete for promotion and that the rules around club spots in Premier and disassociation etc. should be massaged to allow them to do this is simply disingenuous to all the other teams in the division who are assuming that they are playing under the rules as stated. If Lupi, NorVan, Fury, Inter, etc. want to compete for promotion, they can disassociate in advance of next season and try their luck going solo.

This is of course all moot if two of the other eight teams that are eligible for promotion finish first and second.
 

Canucks4Ever

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So let say if the teams that cant move up finish 1st-4th, does the promotion spots automatically go to 5th and 6th place teams in standings?

I would assume so yes.

Obviously that is a doomsday scenario though. Realistically NorVan and Inter don't look like they are in a position to challenge for the top four (though that could obviously change given how early things are).

Again I will reiterate though, these teams knew (or ought to have known...) coming into this season that they could not go up, so I find it hard to believe any of them can try and claim somehow that they are being jobbed if they finish in a promotion spot and are told, essentially, too bad.

Teams that cannot get promoted from Div. 1 is not a new phenomena, this has happened before (ie Westside/Rino's). Certainly it has never happened on this scale though, with 4 out of 12 not able to go up. And, of course, we have never had a situation, at least that I am aware of where a team that could not get promoted finished in a promotion place.

The comparisons to CAT, while not completely unfounded are somewhat misleading. Rino's Fury, NorVan Storm and Coquitlam Metro Ford Lupi are all teams within a club that have earned their way into to Division 1. While they might develop or share the occasional player with a Premier side they are not really a true "B" team for the club's top side. Inter on the other hand, I would consider a CAT type scenario. Point is though, for three of the teams it is tough to say that they are not here on their own merit. Is punting them out of Div. 1 in favour of four additional Div. 2 sides that can "compete for promotion" the answer? I am not convinced. Given how average the competition across Div. 1 seems to already be this season, is watering it down with four more teams from a lower lever actually going to improve things?

Perhaps the solution is to go to a 10 team Premier and 10 team Division 1 and extend the one team per club rule across both those leagues?
 

Canucks4Ever

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There is now a three point gap between the top three and the chasing back, so perhaps a chance to finally start see just where this Division is headed this week. Romania and NorVan will also make up their game from Thanksgiving in a basement battle that threatens to kick the relegation battle into full gear. What's not to like?

Completely Baseless Predictions - Week 8

BONUS GAME - NorVan Storm v Romania
Whether it's dead but not buried, or buried but not dead, Romania have risen in zombie-like fashion from the early season junk heap. You could practically hear the EMTs yelling "CLEAR" as they jump started the European's season against Binger's with a 2-0 win. They certainly have a pulse now and, in fact, a win over fellow stragglers NorVan, now the only team remaining without a win, would lift them above the Army and to early season safety going into the weekend. The Storm will of course be targeting this game as their own chance to get their season out of the ICU, desperately not wanting to be cut four points adrift at the bottom five points from safety. The situation is oddly reminiscent of that which Romania faced eight days earlier actually. A midweek game between a pair of struggling sides seems like it probably has draw written all over it, but you would not have thought a Wednesday night would have held salvation for Romania last week either, so why couldn't it me the lifeline again this week. I still like a draw here, but I am going to say lightning strikes twice and take the "hot" hand of Romania in this one.

Greencaps v Westside
Both teams coming off 1-0 losses at the weekend. Both teams sitting mid-table. Both teams now pealed back to even goal differences. I would not hold out for a work of art in this one. It is three losses on the spin now for the Greencaps, as their early exuberance has faded and they begin to target the realistic goal of staying in the league and trying to build. Westside have only one win on the season, with an absurd four draws in seven games artificially inflating their points tally. Their problem is they simply cannot score goals, with none in their past three games and only six overall on the season; the second worst offensive record in the league. Only their league best defensive record seems to be keeping them on the right side of the drop zone. Three pretty valuable point on offer for somebody this weekend. The Caps have a couple of names on the hot-sheet, so perhaps some personnel issue for them to grapple with on that front. However, the good news is it evidently only takes a single goal to beat Westside, I am willing to bet they find it somewhere.

Romania v Burnaby Metro Athletic
The first major dent in Burnaby's promotion hopes was squarely leveled by GN in their 3-1 victory over Metro last weekend. Burnaby are now four points off the promotion pace and five off of league leaders GN. They will be hoping for help from the rest of the chasing pack in order to keep things compact at the top of the table, thus allowing them to climb back into things. It is over a month since their last victory, making this pretty much a must win against lowly Romania. Bad timing then for the Europeans to have found their fighting spirit. Romania could have a pair of wins on the bounce and be out of the relegation zone by the time this one kicks off on Saturday evening. Two games in three days seems like it could stretch the Romanians thin though, so perhaps this could all play in Burnaby's favour. Especially if Romania have won on Thursday, then surely they will view this as a "bonus game" of sorts. They could be riding a wave of momentum, which will make Metro's start in this one all the more crucial. If they can come out firing, Romania might just decide to just shut down the engines and recharge the batteries for another week. I have to think we will see some desperation from Burnaby this week to jump on a tired Romania squad, so I will tip the visitors here.

GN Sporting
v Columbus
Definitely the MOTW here and, fair enough, GN are for real. They swept aside preseason favourites Burnaby Metro by a 3-1 margin last week and have been able to deliver the good every week so far this season, save for a weird Thanksgiving lapse away to Inter. The Surrey boys were thought to be in disarray coming into this season, but it appears the changes they have made at club level and to player personnel have made them an actual powerhouse in this division. A new name to keep an eye on is their leading scorer Ameet Kaila, who is now up to four on the season, just one behind the league leader. Columbus, meanwhile, have shaken off their early season doldrums and are on a march up the table. They found the decisive goal against Westside last week and that vaulted them into the top half of the table. They sit only five points behind first placed GN, so a win here would see them close that gap and keep things tight at the top. You know the Italians will be motivated, but GN have earned some respect. They have to be considered title and promotion contenders this year and will know that another win this week is once again a solid body blow to a would be challenger. Plus they are at home in Surrey, which could give them a slight edge over a travelling Vancouver side. Should be a top class tilt, but I will take the league leaders.

Rino's Fury v NorVan Storm
The big game for NorVan is Thursday night at home to Romania. That is their chance to kick-start their season. Sunday against Rino's feels like another of those matches that they could win, but just don't seem to be at the moment. Tough to see them coming into this one guns blazing and full of belief if they have just lost four days earlier and are still bottom of the league. If that is the scenario though, they will need to reset, because the points are not just going to fall into their laps. If they have won however, they they can try and use this one to kick on from and climb out of the drop zone. Rino's are steady Eddie, at the minute, lead by the league's top scorer, Ryan Arthur. They are scrappy, don't give up too much defensively, and have players who can punish mistakes. They aren't likely to win every week, but it is tough to pick them to lose at the minute. That is a list of qualities that NorVan would desperately love to boast and, quite frankly, did last season. Worth noting that last year it was against the Storm that Rino's finally stopped their early season rot, so maybe turnabout is fair play in this one. I'll take the form side, however.

Coquitlam Metro Ford Lupi v Club Inter EDC
The "Days Without a Loss" board continues to grow out at Charles Best as Lupi have made it a full calendar year since their last league loss. It came October 21, 2017, away to Vancouver Strikers in Division 2A. A year on and they celebrated a routine 3-1 win over NorVan Storm in Division 1. Clearly Lupi belong here, and perhaps even higher up the food chain, but that is currently precluded by league rules. As they continue to hover in a promotion place, people around the league are starting to take notice given, that should they finish in the top two, the VMSL would find itself in a situation that it has, to my knowledge, never encountered before, with a Division 1 team unable to be promoted to Premier. Given their record, and their penchant for avoiding losing, this is a scenario that is looking increasingly more likely; though surely the league is no doubt praying that Lupi lose their Midas touch by the time the final counting is done come February. In order for that to happen they will need teams to starting beating Coquitlam, which is, evidently, no easy task. Not sure Inter are the best candidates, but, then again, they did hand current league leaders GN their only loss of the year. Stranger things have happened, one supposes. If it were to happen, strange would be a good description indeed; something entirely out of the ordinary. I am not betting on it.

Burnaby Selects White Eagles v Binger's Army
Surely the Army are beginning to feel that sinking feeling once more, after their loss to Romania, who were without a win until last Wednesday, have left Binger's on the precipice of a relegation battle once more this season. Indeed, they may well find themselves in the drop zone come kickoff at Burnaby Lake on Sunday night. No doubt there will be no panic at all from the veteran Army. Their experience is their biggest asset and their performance down the stretch last season will leave them with no shortage of confidence. At the other end of the table site White Eagles, with the once Serbians fully in the think of a battle to return to Premier for the first time since they were, in fact, known as Serbian White Eagles. The Burnaby are clattering in the goals and that is a recipe for disaster for Binger's, given that they have scored a league worst four goals so far this season. It simply just does not seem possible that they can compete in an arms race against their hosts this week and, given that experience, I would bet Binger's know that this is not necessarily a game they need to win in their relegation fight. Yes, they would of course be happy to take something away from this fixture, but overall, they will know they are other days than this one for them to prove they deserve to stay in this league.
 

lego3

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I watched some VMSL games this season and Division 1 is not what it used to be. Its a lot weaker and it actually reminds me of cat division and in many ways that's what it is this year, 4 out of 12 teams cant get promoted to premier. Loose those 4 teams and promote 4 teams from Div. 2 and everyone has a fair chance to compete, any upper div. 2 team would beat any div.1 team on a given day. A perfect example is metro ford and greencaps both of them got promoted last year and both of them are near the top of the table in div.1.
 

lego3

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They can make a decision either they break the affiliation between them and premier metro ford and be separate entity or yes go back to div. 2.

I don't get the logic to play in div.1 and not be able to get promoted? Are they playing for participation trophies? I get it's a feeder system for some clubs but something needs to be done about it.
 

Leblue

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Columbus should be going up they defiantly have the talent on that team just like Metro Athletic but what is surprising is Norvan they should be going way better
 

machel

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I watched some VMSL games this season and Division 1 is not what it used to be. Its a lot weaker and it actually reminds me of cat division and in many ways that's what it is this year, 4 out of 12 teams cant get promoted to premier. Loose those 4 teams and promote 4 teams from Div. 2 and everyone has a fair chance to compete, any upper div. 2 team would beat any div.1 team on a given day. A perfect example is metro ford and greencaps both of them got promoted last year and both of them are near the top of the table in div.1.

The state of div.2 is poor this season as well. Maybe the Strikers could have a go in Div.1 but no other team has a good chance.(I don't know shite about Sierra however). Also 3 of the 4 teams, in div.1, who cannot be promoted are long shots for promotion so what's the big deal? If Lupi finishes in the promotion spots then another team can go up and take a beating and come straight back down. lol
 

Canucks4Ever

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Sierra are an interesting case in Div. 2. They were the one of the best in Burnaby Premier so it stands to reason they would be able to hang in at Div. 1. As it stands now both them and Strikers look good bets to come up this season.

Not sure if the level overall in Division 1 has dropped or if it was just artificially inflated in previous seasons. You had some very good teams who dropped down from Premier and were able to mostly stay together (Inter, Westside, NorVan, Richmond, Columbus) and all yo-yoed back up. You had very good new, young teams trying to break into Premier (Guildford, Ayjal, Shaheen, Campo, North Delta) and you had Division 1 veterans that were closer to their prime and challenging in the top half (Bingers, Rinos).

Give it a season or two to flush itself out, get some new blood, and you will likely see it ratchet up in intensity again. One of the biggest problems, though, is recruiting. Guys don't want to play Division 1, especially if they can make some money to sit on the bench in Premier.

I get the CAT argument, but really only Inter is affiliated with their Prem team. Lupi were formed expressly because these guys had been frozen out at the top level in Coquitlam. Maybe they send the occasional player up if Wolves are desperate, but the Prem side had historically been more affiliated with the U21 group out there. NorVan competed against the team that got promoted last season, so they functioned as separate entities. Maybe with the club restructuring out there they are being used as more of a reserve squad now, but I do wonder who exactly from a team that is bottom of Div. 1 is being called upon to bolster the Premier side. It's the same with Rino's, they went head to head with their Premier side back when they were both in Division 1 and, barring a desperate situation (like last season when no one showed up to play their final game against Campo) there's not much sharing of players. Blaise is way too meticulous to be calling guys up from Division 1. He has an army of subs on his bench in order to fill out his training sessions and will play a teenager from his academy before a Div. 1 guy if they are short. The guys who play Div. 1 for Rino's know they are a Division 1 player and sign there to play at that level, not because they think they might get a shot with the top team.
 
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