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The May 17th Election
- Thread starter TheRob
- Start date
I noticed that TR's Pitt Meadows riding was very close, and last I saw it was swinging to NDP. TheRob's vote actually counted...unless he did a silly "spoiling of the ballot" protest, which he's been known to do.
Centre. How did you land that wife of yours, being so snarky? La Belle et le Bete...
Thankfully, not something I need to think about for at least another 4 years, but more likely 8 because not even a bad NDP government will be able to derail economic progress we'll gain over the next 5 and through the Olympics.
Prediction: Libs take another majority back for a 3rd term in 2009.
Thankfully, not something I need to think about for at least another 4 years, but more likely 8 because not even a bad NDP government will be able to derail economic progress we'll gain over the next 5 and through the Olympics.
Prediction: Libs take another majority back for a 3rd term in 2009.
I don't see the Libs moving closer to the centre or the center. Commentators noted last night that Premier Campbell's 'victory' speech did not take into account that he did not get a resounding mandate like last time and that the public have concerns with a lot he has done/doing.
My sense is that the Liberal agenda (Gordon Campbell's agenda) will not be focused on winning a new term in 2009 but carrying out his personal interests and this could be dramatic. He is not likely to care about what the public think as he notes he has the majority. Look for some tough measures to come from the Liberals and some coming sooner than later.
The good thing is that there is an opposition that can get out the message better than the two they had for most of the last four years.
I really believe that the Premier will be unstoppable now as he just might not care about a third term. He has a solid grip on his party and managed to replace his lost stars - Collins, Clark and Plant. The issue will be how long his new stars - Wally Oppal and Carole Taylor will be comfortable in the one man government.
My sense is that the Liberal agenda (Gordon Campbell's agenda) will not be focused on winning a new term in 2009 but carrying out his personal interests and this could be dramatic. He is not likely to care about what the public think as he notes he has the majority. Look for some tough measures to come from the Liberals and some coming sooner than later.
The good thing is that there is an opposition that can get out the message better than the two they had for most of the last four years.
I really believe that the Premier will be unstoppable now as he just might not care about a third term. He has a solid grip on his party and managed to replace his lost stars - Collins, Clark and Plant. The issue will be how long his new stars - Wally Oppal and Carole Taylor will be comfortable in the one man government.
For sure he will continue to privitize and move things from public to private ownership.
BC Hydro, the ferries, ICBC could be dramatically hit.
All the legislation is in place to end all or part of ICBC without having to go to the Legislature for a vote. Cabinet now has the entire control. You might say who cares but ICBC rates and coverages and victim rights to compensation and the courts are the envy of all of Canada. Notice that auto insurance in BC was hardly mentioned. What is planned for sure is to increase the optional insurance coverage rates offered by ICBC to make it more attractive for private insurers to come here to reduce ICBC market share. Does that make sense? Increase ICBC's rates and costs structure to make it better for private companies to compete. What a strategy. The legislation I referred to includes a provision to require insurers to create "an insurer of last resort" which in other provinces is called the Facility Association. This means that if you can't get insurance as you live with roommates in a house let's say or your fiancee or wife has speeding tickets, regular insurers don't want you and you have to take the highest rates from the insurer of last resort. I could go on but that gives you a sense of what these guys are thinking. Right now they have started requiring ICBC to build capital reserves of close to a billion dollars. This can only come from our pockets. They are doing this to level the playing field with private companies who could go bankrupt unlike a government insurer with a virtual monopoly.
More public - private partnerships that will look good on the surface but will end up costing taxpayers more.
If you heard the Premier last night and other commentators like Rafe Mair and David Mitchell (now living in Ontario) you would have heard them comment that he should have responded more like Tony Blair in England who won but with fewer numbers. Several said it sounded like it was a speech written for a sweep.
My take on the Premier is that he simply doesn't care about public opinion and will want to really put his mark on the province in the next four years without fear of another election as he may choose not to run or run again and then quit.
BC Hydro, the ferries, ICBC could be dramatically hit.
All the legislation is in place to end all or part of ICBC without having to go to the Legislature for a vote. Cabinet now has the entire control. You might say who cares but ICBC rates and coverages and victim rights to compensation and the courts are the envy of all of Canada. Notice that auto insurance in BC was hardly mentioned. What is planned for sure is to increase the optional insurance coverage rates offered by ICBC to make it more attractive for private insurers to come here to reduce ICBC market share. Does that make sense? Increase ICBC's rates and costs structure to make it better for private companies to compete. What a strategy. The legislation I referred to includes a provision to require insurers to create "an insurer of last resort" which in other provinces is called the Facility Association. This means that if you can't get insurance as you live with roommates in a house let's say or your fiancee or wife has speeding tickets, regular insurers don't want you and you have to take the highest rates from the insurer of last resort. I could go on but that gives you a sense of what these guys are thinking. Right now they have started requiring ICBC to build capital reserves of close to a billion dollars. This can only come from our pockets. They are doing this to level the playing field with private companies who could go bankrupt unlike a government insurer with a virtual monopoly.
More public - private partnerships that will look good on the surface but will end up costing taxpayers more.
If you heard the Premier last night and other commentators like Rafe Mair and David Mitchell (now living in Ontario) you would have heard them comment that he should have responded more like Tony Blair in England who won but with fewer numbers. Several said it sounded like it was a speech written for a sweep.
My take on the Premier is that he simply doesn't care about public opinion and will want to really put his mark on the province in the next four years without fear of another election as he may choose not to run or run again and then quit.
"Several said it sounded like it was written for a sweep"
Let's not be ridiculous here, the Liberals just won a larger majority than the NDP has ever had with a greater percentage of the popular vote. Everyone can agree that the last election was an aberation; it will likely never happen again. If Gordon Cambell and the Liberals are so evil and only interested in their own personal interests then why did they elect 46 MLA's? Is it possible that the moral high ground the NDP and their union executive (not necessarily union member) friends think they control is not correct? Is it conceivable that the the people of BC don't actually agree with them? In four years when the economy is still rolling and people still have jobs (and the sun hasn't fallen out of the sky) we will be welcoming back the Liberals (I do hope without Gordon however) for another 4 years.
BTW, Carole James may have a difficult time keeping her "moderate" NDP MLA's actually moderate. The Henry Lali's, Adrian Dix's, and Mike Farnworth's of the world might not like some of what they hear.
Let's not be ridiculous here, the Liberals just won a larger majority than the NDP has ever had with a greater percentage of the popular vote. Everyone can agree that the last election was an aberation; it will likely never happen again. If Gordon Cambell and the Liberals are so evil and only interested in their own personal interests then why did they elect 46 MLA's? Is it possible that the moral high ground the NDP and their union executive (not necessarily union member) friends think they control is not correct? Is it conceivable that the the people of BC don't actually agree with them? In four years when the economy is still rolling and people still have jobs (and the sun hasn't fallen out of the sky) we will be welcoming back the Liberals (I do hope without Gordon however) for another 4 years.
BTW, Carole James may have a difficult time keeping her "moderate" NDP MLA's actually moderate. The Henry Lali's, Adrian Dix's, and Mike Farnworth's of the world might not like some of what they hear.
trece verde
Well-Known Member
Kids:
I don't think that Gordo will move closer to the centre of the political spectrum because he wants to, but because he has to. By now I'm sure the Liberal Party pundits have done the same checking as I just did; there were 13 ridings that the Liberals won but where more people voted against the Liberal candidate than for them.
Basically what this means is ridings where the total of people who voted for either the Green Party or the NDP was greater than the number of votes that the Liberal candidate received, including in Campbell's own riding. Granted, you can't assume that if the Green Party didn't exist, that all of these votes would have been NDP votes, but they definitely weren't Liberal votes.
With the current standings at 45-33 to the Liberals (with 1 not quite decided), this should be a huge wakeup call to Gordo. The Liberals won't be able to take anything for granted in the Legislature anymore.
In terms of the referendum, results currently sit at 57% for and 43% against, not quite enough for the required 60% to pass. According to Elections BC, the final results won't be out until the end of the month....
Not sure why it should take so long to count out a yes/no question, unless it's been contracted out to Florida...
beerz,
stew
I don't think that Gordo will move closer to the centre of the political spectrum because he wants to, but because he has to. By now I'm sure the Liberal Party pundits have done the same checking as I just did; there were 13 ridings that the Liberals won but where more people voted against the Liberal candidate than for them.
Basically what this means is ridings where the total of people who voted for either the Green Party or the NDP was greater than the number of votes that the Liberal candidate received, including in Campbell's own riding. Granted, you can't assume that if the Green Party didn't exist, that all of these votes would have been NDP votes, but they definitely weren't Liberal votes.
With the current standings at 45-33 to the Liberals (with 1 not quite decided), this should be a huge wakeup call to Gordo. The Liberals won't be able to take anything for granted in the Legislature anymore.
In terms of the referendum, results currently sit at 57% for and 43% against, not quite enough for the required 60% to pass. According to Elections BC, the final results won't be out until the end of the month....
Not sure why it should take so long to count out a yes/no question, unless it's been contracted out to Florida...beerz,
stew
trece verde
Well-Known Member
Th'Robby:
Down boy - she's 60 years old
http://www.broadcasting-history.ca/personalities/personalities.php?id=368
beerz,
stew
Good result for BC in general. Strong annoying opposition, but can't see past the fact the CJ does not strike me as a politician, but more like one of those reality shows where you switch lives, from a homemaker or teacher to a leader of a political party. Funny listening to the spin Labour put on it this morning that she singlehandedly brought the NDP back. Dude as leader would have won 30 seats last night. Reality of 4 years of having to make unpleasent decisions with no opposition.
Good for business moving forward towards the Olympics, as well as ensuring a stronger social concious (sp?) for Gordo.
I see a third term with Christy Clark at the helm, or possibly Belinda.
Good for business moving forward towards the Olympics, as well as ensuring a stronger social concious (sp?) for Gordo.
I see a third term with Christy Clark at the helm, or possibly Belinda.
I think we need an "Either Or" here for Belinda vs. Carol Taylor...for TheRob's benefit, of course.
I'd get the NDP 40 seats, guaranteed. I'd make a big entrance to my press conference at Fort Langley on a jet ski (because that's never been done in politics ), smile for the cameras, and woo over all the desperate housewives of the Bible Belt who secretly harbor David Hasslehoff type fantasies.
Do the same thing in Horseshoe Bay to randy up all the young, rich MILFS, and bingo- extra 6 or 7 seats right there.
I'd get the NDP 40 seats, guaranteed. I'd make a big entrance to my press conference at Fort Langley on a jet ski (because that's never been done in politics
), smile for the cameras, and woo over all the desperate housewives of the Bible Belt who secretly harbor David Hasslehoff type fantasies. Do the same thing in Horseshoe Bay to randy up all the young, rich MILFS, and bingo- extra 6 or 7 seats right there.
We should run a TTP slate next election......
Stew could be our leader
We could have the Island soccer boys run in the island, the FVSL in the fraser valley, and the VMSL guys in Vancouver.
I am sure we would at least beat the Green Party.
Stew could be our leader
We could have the Island soccer boys run in the island,
the FVSL in the fraser valley, and the VMSL guys in Vancouver. I am sure we would at least beat the Green Party.
Rivermouth
New Member
One Dart said:
Couple of points:
Elected 46 MLA's because the Greens split 11-12 ridings that, had there been no Greens, would have seen the "Anti-government" (and let's face it, the Greens are anti-government) vote go to the NDP. Additionally, the Green Platform was closer to the NDP's than it was to Gordo's, which adds further weight to my assertions.
Why is it so bad to have political parties try to represent individuals of all stripes in this province? What difference does it make where an individual makes his paycheques to pay his/her bills? Is it somewhat morally superior for an individual to make his/her money from running a business instead of from helping that business to run? Why are apologists for the shoddily run Gordo government always turning a blind eye to his sheer fiscal incompetency, while focusing on the, dare I write it, "red herring" issue of where someone earns their paycheques, as a reason to continue to be a useless manager of our finances?
The fact remains that the combined votes of the "opposition" parties surpassed those of Gordo's Libs, which is far from a ringing endorsement of his extreme policies. This was obvious last night when all cameras panned across the ashen faces of the "partiers" at the Lib "celebrations", because they themselves realized how close it really was.
Finally, what kind of massive incompetence does it take to single handedly bring a party back from the dead in less than one term of office? The kind that sees Gordon Campbell running things. 4 years ago, NDP 2 seats. Last night, 33, and if the Greens hadn't been in it, maybe as many as 44 (a NDP majority).
If there is one thing that came out clearly last night it was this: Gordon Campbell is a liability. So I agree with your assertion that he (hopefully) will be gone before the next election (but don't count on it).
Lastly, anyone who knows anything about our parliamentary system realizes that it is the leader of a party which sets the tone and the policies for which they will follow. As a result, the "old guard" vs. "new guard" argument is completely bunk, since to argue it, you would also have to acknowledge the "old guard" Socreds who are in Gordo's government (the very same Socreds who helmed one of the worst governments in BC's history and destroyed the Socreds in the process). The Leader IS the party that he/she represents, while they are in power, NOT the other way around in our system, and as a result, well balanced Libs get overridden by Gordo's henchmen in the Premier's office, which is also what happened under the old Glen Clark NDP, by his henchmen, in the same office, to his MLA's. What the NDP defines itself as under Carol James will be determined in the following months. Whether or not the NDP is actually "new" will, as a result, also be determined then.
Remember the old addage: Don't throw stones if you live in a glass house.
River,
As long as there are more than two major parties, votes will split. See Gordon Wilson, turncoat.
Bottom line: some voted for Green because they were as unimpressed w/ the NDP as they were with Libs. As you said, most Green votes are "Anti" establishment.
As long as there are more than two major parties, votes will split. See Gordon Wilson, turncoat.
Bottom line: some voted for Green because they were as unimpressed w/ the NDP as they were with Libs. As you said, most Green votes are "Anti" establishment.
The economy has done well under the Liberals....
But for anyone who believes that had more to with Liberal economic policies than it did with the low interest rates and high commodity prices, I have a newspaper for sale called the Province.
Wait, you probably already have it.
This is not to take anything away from sound fiscal management. It's just that if your Government revenues are overflowing with stumpage fees and license revenues, it is quite easy to balance the budget.
But for anyone who believes that had more to with Liberal economic policies than it did with the low interest rates and high commodity prices, I have a newspaper for sale called the Province.
Wait, you probably already have it.
This is not to take anything away from sound fiscal management. It's just that if your Government revenues are overflowing with stumpage fees and license revenues, it is quite easy to balance the budget.
Rivermouth
New Member
Because the Green Party was an offshoot of the far left of the NDP, it is my assertion that those who are "natural" (no pun intended) voters of the Greens are more likely to vote for the NDP, than the Libs. Alternatively, without a Green Party, some of their natural vote may have chosen to boycott the whole thing and remain home on voting day. However, it is my assertion that, like any part of a political organization that is rabid in its support for a few policy items, the Greens (or "environmentalist wing") would have voted for the party which could be seen to be more open to their ideas than another that may not be (NDP rather than Gordo Lib.). As a result, I think that it can be argued that though not ALL of the Green votes would have gone to the NDP had there been no Green presence in the election, a MAJORITY of them would have, which would have tipped the scales in at least 12 ridings (including Gordon's).
Rivermouth
New Member
Gurps said:The economy has done well under the Liberals....
But for anyone who believes that had more to with Liberal economic policies than it did with the low interest rates and high commodity prices, I have a newspaper for sale called the Province.
Wait, you probably already have it.
This is not to take anything away from sound fiscal management. It's just that if your Government revenues are overflowing with stumpage fees and license revenues, it is quite easy to balance the budget.
BINGO! Give this man a prize! I am in absolute agreement!
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